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Welcome to the RenewableUK Project Intelligence blog. This blog will provide members with news such as contract awards, government approvals and investment decisions for global offshore wind projects as well as onshore wind and marine energy projects in the UK. The blog will also provide members with graphical data and analysis on key components, as well as project forecasts.

 

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Opportunities in Offshore Wind - The European Component Market Beckons

Posted By Bahzad Ayoub, 19 April 2017
Updated: 19 April 2017

Many companies in the renewable energy sector are looking for ways to break into new markets, and with other countries now looking to follow the UK’s lead on offshore wind, there are increasing opportunities for UK firms to export skills, services and components. 

Until 2016 it was often remarked that the UK had more offshore wind than the rest of the world combined. Simple mathematics shows it is hard to maintain such a position, but the UK still accounts for 46% of the 11.1GW now operating in EuropeThe European market is set to continue growing with a strong pipeline of offshore wind farm construction, creating opportunities for component suppliers and installers. Major components that will be required for the continued growth of offshore wind projects in Europe are turbines, foundations, cables and substations. 

Europe Commissioning Activity & Forecast by Country (MW p.a.)


Source: RenewableUK Project Intelligence 

The above chart shows the commissioning activity and forecast for offshore wind projects in Europe. The figures are based on all projects which are currently in the planning phase achieving Final Investment Decision and moving forward to the construction phase. The UK and Germany are forecast to commission the most projects over the next five years based on project capacity. In total, RenewableUK forecasts that a further 7.8GW worth of projects will be commissioned in the UK between 2017 and 2022. The graph also shows that 2020 will see the largest amount of European project commissioning activity, with over 4.1GW worth of projects commissioned in that year alone.  

European Foundation Installation Forecast by Country (units p.a.)

Source: RenewableUK Project Intelligence 

Offshore foundation installation activity across Europe is expected to increase between 2017 and 2019, but then is forecast to fall slightly in 2020 due to a reduction of activity in Germany. Projects in the UK and Germany are expected to drive demand in the near term, whilst France, Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands are expected to contribute to demand from 2018 onwards.

Near-term installation activity is expected to be driven primarily by GeoSea and Van Oord, both of whom are expected to undertake foundation installations from 2017 through to 2020. Both these companies have contracts for installing foundations in the UK, Germany and Belgium over this four-year period.

Foundation fabrication contracts in Europe are spread across four main companies; Bladt, Sif, EEW and Smulders. These companies all have contracts for fabricating foundations for projects in 2017 and 2018, with  of these companies now using UK fabrication yards for some of this work. Effiage enters the foundation fabrication market in 2020 for projects in France. Effiage’s work will continue into 2021 and the company will fabricate a total of 83 foundations over these 2 years.

European Turbine Installation Forecast by Country (units p.a)

Source: RenewableUK Project Intelligence 

Turbine installation activity across Europe is expected to increase between 2017 and 2019. Activity is forecast to fall slightly in 2020 and 2021 but it will still remain higher than 2016 levels. We expect a large surge in turbine installations in 2022 with a total of 838 turbines being installed.

Projects in the UK and Germany will drive demand in the near term, whilst France, Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands are expected to contribute to demand from 2018 onwards. The UK and Germany are forecasted to re-emerge as big demand markets in 2022, with the UK accounting for 315 installations and Germany accounting for 330 installations.

Near-term installation activity is expected to be driven primarily by Fred.Olsen and A2Sea, with both companies forecast to be undertaking foundation installations from 2017 through to 2020. GeoSea and Swire BO are due to undertake turbine installations in 2018 and 2019. Siemens leads the way in the manufacturing and supply of wind turbines in Europe, closely followed by MHI Vestas. These two turbine manufacturers are expected to supply turbines to European projects between 2017 and 2020.

There are many opportunities out there as a result of all this activity. A total of 2,484 foundation units have yet to be contracted for fabrication and a further 2,644 units have yet to be contracted for installation between 2017 and 2022. The manufacturing of 1,429 turbine units and the installation of 2,115 turbine units are also awaiting to be contracted between these years. Therefore there are still a large number of contracts that have yet to be awarded for both the manufacturing and installation of foundations and turbines across Europe, creating supply chain opportunities over the next five years in both sectors. 

European Array Cable Installation Forecast by Country (km)

Source: RenewableUK Project Intelligence 

Array cable installation is expected to peak at 1,467km per annum in 2022, however this is dependent on the results and timings of auctions. This activity is also dependent upon the progress that planned projects make with regards to them moving forward into the construction phase. The UK and Germany are expected to drive demand in the near term, Whilst the Netherlands, France, Denmark and Belgium are additionally expected to contribute to demand from 2018 onwards. 

JDR is leading with regards to the manufacturing of array cables for European projects, as the company is supplying cables through to 2020. JDR has secured contracts in the UK and Germany, supplying a combined total of 745km worth of array cables to projects located in these countries over the next five years. Nexans and Prysmian are also supplying cables in the medium-term, with Nexans supplying a total of 514km and Prysmian supplying a total of 469km worth of cables.

VBMS, Siem Offshore and DeepOcean have secured array cable installation work for projects through to 2020. VBMS is set to install a total of 663Km worth of cables between 2017 and 2020. Siem Offshore will be installing a total of 442km worth of cables in this same period, whilst DeepOcean will be installing a total of 321km worth of cables. 

European Export Cable Installation Forecast by Country (km)


Source: RenewableUK Project Intelligence 

Near-term export cable installation across Europe is expected to peak at just over 687km per annum in 2019 with future demand again dependent on the results and timings of auctions. If future projects come to fruition, it is forecasted that 2022 will witness the highest demand for installations over the next five years with 970km per annum. The UK and Germany are expected to drive demand in the near term, whilst Denmark and Belgium are additionally expected to contribute to demand from 2018 onwards. Near-term demand for export cable is expected to be met by Prysmian ‘s secured orders in Germany, as well as ABB and nkt’s secured orders in the UK. Nexans and NSW will contribute to the supply in the medium-term.

Where contract awards are known, Tideway, Prysmian, VBMS and DeepOcean have the largest shares of array cable installation activity between 2017 onwards. Tideway has secured the bulk of export cable installation work in 2019 with their contract for the Hornsea Project One which will see them installing 247 km of export cable.

European Substation Installation Forecast by Country (units p.a.)

Source: RenewableUK Project Intelligence 

Offshore substation installation activity across Europe is expected to fall in 2017 in comparison to 2016 levels, However, it is forecast to pick up again in 2018, with 2019 and 2020 resulting in 10 and nine installations respectively.

Projects in the UK and Germany are expected to drive demand in the near term, whilst France, Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands are expected to contribute to demand from 2019 onward. Near-term installation activity is expected to be driven primarily by Fabricom and Iemants’ secured orders in the UK, as well as firm commitments in Germany from the likes of Bladt.

Outside the UK, Fabricom and Iemants has a firm agreement in place to deliver a substation to the Veja Mate project in Germany. Fabricom will also be providing a substation for the Merkur Offshore project in Germany. Meanwhile, Bladt and Semco are expected to deliver two substations for the Hornsea Project One. 

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